BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bridled Titmouse In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalForest birds

Bridled Titmouse in Sierra Madre Occidental has declined: down 26% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-26%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bridled Titmouse in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Bridled Titmouse In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bridled Titmouse in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.89 (95% range 0.00–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.89Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bridled Titmouse in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.89 (95% range 0.00–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.003.9
20271.00.003.9
20281.000.003.8
20290.940.003.8
20300.890.003.7

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Bridled Titmouse in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SunizonaARIZONA101997
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA92025
PortalARIZONA92025
PatagoniaARIZONA82025
DragoonARIZONA52009
Peña BlancaARIZONA42024
Mormon LakeARIZONA31968
PomereneARIZONA31995
Carr MtnARIZONA32025
RuckerARIZONA32008
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO32024
PrescottARIZONA22025
RedingtonARIZONA22023
Mt. GrahamARIZONA22018
Aztec PeakARIZONA11977
BlueARIZONA11986
Skull ValleyARIZONA12024
Bartlett ResARIZONA12002
SprucedaleARIZONA12017
Sunizona 2ARIZONA12023
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.