Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brewer's Blackbird In Chihuahuan Desert

All regions Chihuahuan Desert Generalists

Brewer's Blackbird in Chihuahuan Desert has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-61%Since 1974

8Routes In Region

34Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Brewer's Blackbird has fallen sharply in Chihuahuan Desert: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brewer's Blackbird in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 100% by 2026 — from 0.13 in 2021 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±103.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2026

0.00Projected 2026 index

0.00–0.6595% range

±103.6%Backtest error

Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.

Year	Projected index	95% low	95% high
2022	0.00	0.00	0.65
2023	0.00	0.00	0.65
2024	0.00	0.00	0.65
2025	0.00	0.00	0.65
2026	0.00	0.00	0.65

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Brewer's Blackbird in Chihuahuan Desert.

Jornada	NEW-MEXICO	36	1977
Rodeo	NEW-MEXICO	6	1986
Cloudcroft	NEW-MEXICO	4	2021
Hot Springs	TEXAS	2	1967
Bear Mtn	TEXAS	2	1989
Gage	NEW-MEXICO	1	2004
Laborcita	NEW-MEXICO	1	2005
Altuda	TEXAS	1	1986

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.