BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Boreal Chickadee In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestForest birds

Boreal Chickadee in Northern Pacific Rainforest has declined: down 40% on the route-weighted index since 1991.

-40%Since 1991TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Boreal Chickadee in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Boreal Chickadee In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Boreal Chickadee in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±77.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Boreal Chickadee in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19832030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.040.000.16
20270.040.000.16
20280.040.000.16
20290.040.000.16
20300.040.000.16

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Boreal Chickadee in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Thorne BayALASKA151991
Moose PassALASKA31985
Thompson PasALASKA22022
Sheep MtnALASKA22025
HopeALASKA22025
CordovaALASKA11983
Alpenglow (Short)ALASKA12004

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.