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Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Boreal Chickadee In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Boreal Chickadee in Boreal Hardwood Transition has fallen sharply: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-72%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Boreal Chickadee has fallen sharply in Boreal Hardwood Transition: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Boreal Chickadee In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Boreal Chickadee in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Boreal Chickadee in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.09
20260.030.000.09
20270.030.000.09
20280.030.000.09
20290.030.000.09

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Boreal Chickadee in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ned LakeMICHIGAN21987
CunardMICHIGAN21982
TahquamenonMICHIGAN21974
Sawbill CampMINNESOTA22010
BabbittMINNESOTA22022
ShanagoldenWISCONSIN22000
BerglandMICHIGAN11990
Gibbs CityMICHIGAN12017
IshpemingMICHIGAN11984
Brocky LakeMICHIGAN12004
WilsonMICHIGAN12002
IsabellaMICHIGAN11975
RacoMICHIGAN11992
Imp LakeMICHIGAN11999
Pine RiverMICHIGAN12014
CromwellMINNESOTA11996
HovlandMINNESOTA11981
LockportMINNESOTA12018
Sawbill LndgMINNESOTA12024
Hart LakeMINNESOTA12010
Crane LakeMINNESOTA12005
JordanMINNESOTA12022
Red LakeMINNESOTA12012
IrmaWISCONSIN11981
Eagle RiverWISCONSIN11997

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.