BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bobolink In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastGrassland birds

Bobolink in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has collapsed: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-82%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bobolink has collapsed in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Bobolink In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 10% by 2030 — from 0.22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.19Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 10% by 2030 — from 0.22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.270.000.65
20270.250.000.63
20280.230.000.61
20290.210.000.59
20300.190.000.57

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Bobolink in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Woodstock 2CONNECTICUT102019
PrincetonMASSACHUSETTS101976
Cape NeddickMAINE82022
WarrenMASSACHUSETTS82009
BuckinghamCONNECTICUT52014
ShermanCONNECTICUT52019
BelchertownMASSACHUSETTS42025
BrentwoodNEW-HAMPSHIRE41998
DanburyCONNECTICUT31989
Kittery PtMAINE32008
EpsomNEW-HAMPSHIRE32016
ClarksvilleNEW-JERSEY31978
UncasvilleCONNECTICUT22025
WoodstockCONNECTICUT22007
WestbrookCONNECTICUT21993
Warren 2CONNECTICUT22025
GranbyCONNECTICUT22019
MarionMASSACHUSETTS22019
LittletonMASSACHUSETTS22015
MansfieldMASSACHUSETTS21990
E PepperellMASSACHUSETTS21992
S BarreMASSACHUSETTS22025
HoldenMASSACHUSETTS22025
Warren 2MASSACHUSETTS22019
East KingstonNEW-HAMPSHIRE22025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.