BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bobolink In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastGrassland birds

Bobolink in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has collapsed: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-78%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bobolink has collapsed in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Bobolink In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 51% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.00–0.60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+51%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.22Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 51% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.00–0.60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.290.000.68
20260.280.000.66
20270.260.000.64
20280.240.000.62
20290.220.000.60

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Bobolink in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DoverNEW-HAMPSHIRE112023
Woodstock 2CONNECTICUT102019
PrincetonMASSACHUSETTS101976
Cape NeddickMAINE82022
WarrenMASSACHUSETTS82009
BuckinghamCONNECTICUT52014
ShermanCONNECTICUT52019
BelchertownMASSACHUSETTS42024
BrentwoodNEW-HAMPSHIRE41998
UncasvilleCONNECTICUT32024
DanburyCONNECTICUT31989
Kittery PtMAINE32008
EpsomNEW-HAMPSHIRE32016
ClarksvilleNEW-JERSEY31978
WoodstockCONNECTICUT22007
WestbrookCONNECTICUT21993
GranbyCONNECTICUT22019
MarionMASSACHUSETTS22019
LittletonMASSACHUSETTS22015
MansfieldMASSACHUSETTS21990
E PepperellMASSACHUSETTS21992
Warren 2MASSACHUSETTS22019
MasonvilleNEW-JERSEY21966
New BedfordNEW-JERSEY21974
Sachuest PtRHODE-ISLAND21973

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.