BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bobolink In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGrassland birds

Bobolink in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 104% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

+104%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bobolink has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 104% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

Bobolink In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 85% by 2029 — from 0.55 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-85%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±82.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 85% by 2029 — from 0.55 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.080.000.29
20260.080.000.29
20270.080.000.29
20280.080.000.29
20290.080.000.29

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Bobolink in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hay SpringsNEBRASKA462024
BereaNEBRASKA92019
DaltonNEBRASKA72015
HudsonCOLORADO32022
Fort MorganCOLORADO22002
NeegrandeCOLORADO11994
JulesburgCOLORADO12017
WallaceKANSAS11982
PaxtonNEBRASKA12016
KimballNEBRASKA12015
CrawfordNEBRASKA12011
Agate 2NEBRASKA12023
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.