BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bobolink In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGrassland birds

Bobolink in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 190% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+190%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
96Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bobolink has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 190% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Bobolink In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 34% by 2029 — from 5.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.4 (95% range 4.1–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.1–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 34% by 2029 — from 5.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.4 (95% range 4.1–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.03.610
20267.13.710
20277.23.811
20287.34.011
20297.44.111

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Bobolink in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA562024
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA482024
Glen UllinNORTH-DAKOTA472022
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA462018
PromiseSOUTH-DAKOTA362015
Two DotMONTANA352024
LodgepoleSOUTH-DAKOTA332024
Ft YatesNORTH-DAKOTA312004
DaytonWYOMING302024
TobaccoNORTH-DAKOTA282019
CarsonNORTH-DAKOTA282024
Eagle ButteSOUTH-DAKOTA262015
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA242024
BentleyNORTH-DAKOTA242024
Cedar CreekNORTH-DAKOTA182022
HardingSOUTH-DAKOTA172019
IsabelSOUTH-DAKOTA172015
BrusettMONTANA152024
SolenNORTH-DAKOTA142024
LindsayMONTANA122024
GolvaNORTH-DAKOTA122023
ChamberlainSOUTH-DAKOTA112011
EnglewoodSOUTH-DAKOTA112021
Chuffey SpringMONTANA102023
AlbionMONTANA92023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.