BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bobolink In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestGrassland birds

Bobolink in Atlantic Northern Forest has fallen sharply: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-75%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
131Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bobolink has fallen sharply in Atlantic Northern Forest: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Bobolink In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 54% by 2029 — from 3.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.00–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-54%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 54% by 2029 — from 3.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.00–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.10.004.6
20262.00.004.5
20271.80.004.3
20281.60.004.1
20291.40.003.9

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Bobolink in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bowdoin CtrMAINE352013
BentonMAINE331980
ChesterfieldMASSACHUSETTS232024
CanterburyNEW-HAMPSHIRE202024
ManchesterMAINE171995
Dixville Notch 2NEW-HAMPSHIRE162024
East HavenVERMONT152024
WatervilleVERMONT151980
Otisfield GrMAINE142015
Dixvil NotchNEW-HAMPSHIRE142017
BoundaryMAINE122016
HermonMAINE112019
LudlowMAINE111998
WashburnMAINE112005
CornvilleMAINE112024
CheshireMASSACHUSETTS101994
HarmonyMAINE92024
BenedictaMAINE92022
Ft FairfieldMAINE92005
St DavidMAINE92005
StrattonVERMONT92024
GaysvilleVERMONT92018
WarrenMAINE81990
NorthfieldMAINE81981
WytopitlockMAINE81990

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.