BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bobolink In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionGrassland birds

Bobolink in Boreal Hardwood Transition has declined: down 48% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-48%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
99Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bobolink in Boreal Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Bobolink In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 4.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 0.00–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 4.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 0.00–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.80.107.4
20263.60.007.3
20273.50.007.2
20283.40.007.0
20293.20.006.9

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Bobolink in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PickfordMICHIGAN602024
GreenbushMINNESOTA372024
FloodwoodMINNESOTA322024
BagleyMINNESOTA202006
Iron RiverWISCONSIN172024
Amnicon FallsWISCONSIN172024
Weirgor SpringsWISCONSIN172024
OntonagonMICHIGAN162019
Lake CityMICHIGAN152015
Nett LakeMINNESOTA132024
Pleasant ValMICHIGAN121997
Hubbard LakeMICHIGAN121996
CunardMICHIGAN112021
CathroMICHIGAN112016
BayfieldWISCONSIN112024
HerronMICHIGAN102016
LudeMINNESOTA102023
WarroadMINNESOTA102024
GilmanWISCONSIN102024
RiggsvilleMICHIGAN82019
DebsMINNESOTA82024
BackusMINNESOTA72024
McgregorMINNESOTA72024
Skegemog PtMICHIGAN62014
FredericMICHIGAN62003

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.