BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bobolink In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionGrassland birds

Bobolink in Boreal Hardwood Transition has declined: down 48% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-48%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
99Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bobolink in Boreal Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Bobolink In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.0 (95% range 0.00–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+0%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bobolink in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.0 (95% range 0.00–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.60.007.2
20273.40.007.1
20283.30.006.9
20293.20.006.8
20303.00.006.7

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Bobolink in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PickfordMICHIGAN482025
GreenbushMINNESOTA302025
Amnicon FallsWISCONSIN212025
BagleyMINNESOTA202006
OntonagonMICHIGAN162019
McgregorMINNESOTA162025
Lake CityMICHIGAN152015
FloodwoodMINNESOTA152025
Nett LakeMINNESOTA132024
Pleasant ValMICHIGAN121997
Hubbard LakeMICHIGAN121996
CunardMICHIGAN112021
CathroMICHIGAN112016
Iron RiverWISCONSIN112025
HerronMICHIGAN102016
BayfieldWISCONSIN102025
RiggsvilleMICHIGAN82019
BackusMINNESOTA82025
Pine RiverMINNESOTA82025
Skegemog PtMICHIGAN62014
FredericMICHIGAN62003
DebsMINNESOTA62025
Little ForkMINNESOTA62024
Wigwam BayMINNESOTA52023
BrainerdMINNESOTA52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.