BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Boat-tailed Grackle In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaGeneralists

Boat-tailed Grackle in Peninsular Florida has declined: down 49% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-49%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Boat-tailed Grackle in Peninsular Florida. See the full index history below.

Boat-tailed Grackle In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Boat-tailed Grackle in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 0.00–37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Boat-tailed Grackle in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 0.00–37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025190.0039
2026180.0038
2027180.0038
2028170.0037
2029170.0037

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Boat-tailed Grackle in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ShawanoFLORIDA8032002
TamiamiFLORIDA1651974
BrowardFLORIDA1541973
AndytownFLORIDA1491998
KendallFLORIDA1481991
Boca RatonFLORIDA1421994
Holey LandFLORIDA1142024
IndiantownFLORIDA1032017
ClewistonFLORIDA1012023
Ridge HarborFLORIDA612024
DavieFLORIDA552017
WebbFLORIDA532024
Shawano 2FLORIDA512011
SandyFLORIDA482015
Wildernes PkFLORIDA462014
Lake BuffumFLORIDA412024
AlturasFLORIDA401986
St LucieFLORIDA402024
Myakka HeadFLORIDA392009
ScottsmoorFLORIDA392024
Dale MabryFLORIDA381988
SalvistaFLORIDA331979
Devils GardnFLORIDA332024
Citrus ParkFLORIDA312024
KissimmeeFLORIDA302024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.