BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Boat-tailed Grackle In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaWetland birds

Boat-tailed Grackle in Peninsular Florida has fallen sharply: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-58%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Boat-tailed Grackle has fallen sharply in Peninsular Florida: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Boat-tailed Grackle In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Boat-tailed Grackle in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 16 (95% range 0.00–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Boat-tailed Grackle in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 16 (95% range 0.00–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026180.0038
2027180.0038
2028170.0037
2029170.0037
2030160.0036

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Boat-tailed Grackle in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ShawanoFLORIDA8032002
TamiamiFLORIDA1651974
BrowardFLORIDA1541973
AndytownFLORIDA1491998
KendallFLORIDA1481991
Boca RatonFLORIDA1421994
Holey LandFLORIDA1342025
IndiantownFLORIDA1032017
ClewistonFLORIDA1012023
WebbFLORIDA902025
Ridge HarborFLORIDA862025
DavieFLORIDA552017
St LucieFLORIDA542025
Shawano 2FLORIDA512011
SandyFLORIDA482015
Wildernes PkFLORIDA462014
Lake BuffumFLORIDA412024
AlturasFLORIDA401986
Myakka HeadFLORIDA392009
Dale MabryFLORIDA381988
SalvistaFLORIDA331979
ScottsmoorFLORIDA302025
Citrus ParkFLORIDA282025
Babcock RnchFLORIDA261989
Indiantown 2FLORIDA252025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.