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Species · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bluethroat Population Trend in Alaska

All statesForest birds

Bluethroat in Alaska has surged: up 612% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

+612%Since 1995TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
25YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bluethroat Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bluethroat in Alaska. See the full index history below.

Bluethroat Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Bluethroat in Alaska is projected to fall about 53% by 2030 — from 0.19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±134.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-53%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±134.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bluethroat in Alaska is projected to fall about 53% by 2030 — from 0.19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±134.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19932030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.090.000.20
20270.090.000.20
20280.090.000.20
20290.090.000.21
20300.090.000.21

Bluethroat Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Bluethroat in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Red Dog420251997
Galbraith L.420251998
Happy Valley320251996
Nome220231997
Teller220151997
Salmon Lake120191993
Council120181993

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.