BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Great Basin has surged: up 434% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+434%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in Great Basin: up 434% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Great Basin is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 0.39 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.28–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.47Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.28–0.6695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±84.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Great Basin is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 0.39 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.28–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.440.250.63
20270.450.260.64
20280.460.270.65
20290.460.270.65
20300.470.280.66

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NewcastleUTAH112025
Meadow VallyNEVADA82025
RanchograndeNEVADA72024
HawthorneNEVADA62001
Jericho JunctionUTAH62024
Ruby Valley 2NEVADA52013
Comins LakeNEVADA52016
VernonUTAH52025
Clear Lk ResCALIFORNIA42014
Iron GateCALIFORNIA42019
Daniels ResIDAHO42025
AustinNEVADA42018
LeamingtonUTAH41997
Goose Creek Mtn.UTAH42025
PocatelloIDAHO32019
AlmoIDAHO32025
WillisNEVADA32025
Humboldt Nf 2NEVADA32025
NubieberCALIFORNIA22018
Davis CreekCALIFORNIA21990
TionestaCALIFORNIA22021
Crowder FlatCALIFORNIA22002
Piute MdwsNEVADA22018
CortezNEVADA22023
Walker CanNEVADA22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.