Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Gulf Coastal Prairie
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Gulf Coastal Prairie has collapsed: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1971.
-84%Since 1971
21Routes In Region
33Years
Notable Signals
long arc declinecomputed index
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has collapsed in Gulf Coastal Prairie: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1971.
Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±171.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
+4%Change by 2026
0.11Projected 2026 index
0.00–0.3895% range
±171.5%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| 2023 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| 2024 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| 2025 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| 2026 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie
| Winnie | TEXAS | 4 | 1973 |
| Loyola Beach | TEXAS | 4 | 1994 |
| Lafitte | LOUISIANA | 3 | 1989 |
| Hackberry | LOUISIANA | 3 | 1990 |
| Vinton | LOUISIANA | 3 | 2009 |
| Mcfaddin | TEXAS | 3 | 2016 |
| Woodlawn | LOUISIANA | 2 | 2011 |
| Gran Chenier | LOUISIANA | 1 | 1971 |
| Glencoe | LOUISIANA | 1 | 2017 |
| Esther | LOUISIANA | 1 | 1996 |
| Kaplan | LOUISIANA | 1 | 2021 |
| Sabine Nwr | LOUISIANA | 1 | 1989 |
| Ville Platte | LOUISIANA | 1 | 2007 |
| Vinton 2 | LOUISIANA | 1 | 2021 |
| Petronila | TEXAS | 1 | 2010 |
| Hinkles Fer | TEXAS | 1 | 1983 |
| Indianola | TEXAS | 1 | 2003 |
| Rock Island | TEXAS | 1 | 2014 |
| San Pedro | TEXAS | 1 | 2014 |
| Loyola Beach 2 | TEXAS | 1 | 2015 |
| Goliad Prairie | TEXAS | 1 | 2015 |
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.