BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Gulf Coastal Prairie has collapsed: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-84%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has collapsed in Gulf Coastal Prairie: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±171.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±171.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±171.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.130.000.40
20230.120.000.39
20240.120.000.39
20250.110.000.38
20260.110.000.38

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WinnieTEXAS41973
Loyola BeachTEXAS41994
LafitteLOUISIANA31989
HackberryLOUISIANA31990
VintonLOUISIANA32009
McfaddinTEXAS32016
WoodlawnLOUISIANA22011
Gran ChenierLOUISIANA11971
GlencoeLOUISIANA12017
EstherLOUISIANA11996
KaplanLOUISIANA12021
Sabine NwrLOUISIANA11989
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA12007
Vinton 2LOUISIANA12021
PetronilaTEXAS12010
Hinkles FerTEXAS11983
IndianolaTEXAS12003
Rock IslandTEXAS12014
San PedroTEXAS12014
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS12015
Goliad PrairieTEXAS12015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.