BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Sierra Madre Occidental has risen sharply: up 64% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+64%Since 1975
23Routes In Region
50Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has risen sharply in Sierra Madre Occidental: up 64% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.58–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2029
1.3Projected 2029 index
0.58–2.095% range
±29.6%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.20.521.9
20261.20.541.9
20271.30.552.0
20281.30.562.0
20291.30.582.0

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO102024
PortalARIZONA72024
SprucedaleARIZONA52023
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO42024
BlueARIZONA31989
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA32021
Clay SpringARIZONA32012
Carr MtnARIZONA32024
PrescottARIZONA22015
Mormon LakeARIZONA21968
RedingtonARIZONA22023
Aztec PeakARIZONA11978
Peña BlancaARIZONA11996
WilliamsARIZONA11993
Skull ValleyARIZONA12015
Forest LakesARIZONA12024
PinetopARIZONA12018
Bartlett ResARIZONA12024
Mt. GrahamARIZONA12022
Sunizona 2ARIZONA12014
RuckerARIZONA12000
ReserveNEW-MEXICO12023
MagdalenaNEW-MEXICO12002

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.