BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has edged up: up 13% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+13%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. See the full index history below.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 135% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.31 (95% range 0.00–0.73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±388.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+135%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.31Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±388.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 135% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.31 (95% range 0.00–0.73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±388.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.300.000.72
20260.310.000.73
20270.310.000.73
20280.310.000.73
20290.310.000.73

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cutter 2ARIZONA52018
QuartzsiteARIZONA32019
Jean LakeNEVADA32010
Alamo Res.ARIZONA22024
OnyxCALIFORNIA21995
Valley WellsCALIFORNIA22017
TecopaCALIFORNIA22016
FlynnCALIFORNIA21989
Death ValleyCALIFORNIA22021
BeattyNEVADA22021
OatmanARIZONA12006
LagunaARIZONA11984
UbehebeCALIFORNIA12019
WildroseCALIFORNIA12005
GoldstoneCALIFORNIA11996
Anza BorregoCALIFORNIA11996
DarwinCALIFORNIA12005
Eureka ValCALIFORNIA12024
InyokernCALIFORNIA12009
IvanpahCALIFORNIA12019
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA11984
CimaCALIFORNIA12021
PearblossomCALIFORNIA12010
Lone PineCALIFORNIA12005
Kelso ValleyCALIFORNIA12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.