BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Coastal California has surged: up 860% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+860%Since 1971
73Routes In Region
55Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in Coastal California: up 860% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Coastal California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.8 (95% range 0.98–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2029
1.8Projected 2029 index
0.98–2.795% range
±52.6%Backtest error
19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.70.882.6
20261.80.912.6
20271.80.932.7
20281.80.952.7
20291.80.982.7

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Coastal California.
Elsinore MtnCALIFORNIA412024
Carmel ValCALIFORNIA172024
Bartlett SpsCALIFORNIA132018
Santa YnezCALIFORNIA102019
Lake CachumaCALIFORNIA102016
StonyfordCALIFORNIA102018
Lake Hemet 2CALIFORNIA92023
RumseyCALIFORNIA82008
Yolla BollyCALIFORNIA62023
CoalingaCALIFORNIA52005
Mt BaldyCALIFORNIA52024
TehamaCALIFORNIA52022
WoodlandsCALIFORNIA52024
Hough SpringsCALIFORNIA52007
Sawmill MtnCALIFORNIA42022
FallsvaleCALIFORNIA41975
TomheadCALIFORNIA42011
ValyermoCALIFORNIA32019
Mt LagunaCALIFORNIA31987
JacksonCALIFORNIA31992
LockwoodCALIFORNIA32024
CalpellaCALIFORNIA21979
San YsidroCALIFORNIA22017
Lake SuccessCALIFORNIA21996
Big BearCALIFORNIA21979

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.