BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Peninsular Florida has surged: up 342% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+342%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in Peninsular Florida: up 342% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 6.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.1 (95% range 3.5–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.5–6.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 6.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.1 (95% range 3.5–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.83.26.5
20274.93.36.5
20285.03.46.6
20295.13.46.7
20305.13.56.8

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OcalaFLORIDA232025
CitrusFLORIDA222025
GoetheFLORIDA222025
Island GroveFLORIDA202025
Ft MccoyFLORIDA192025
BelmoreFLORIDA142024
St AugustineFLORIDA132025
PinecrestFLORIDA132025
Citrus ParkFLORIDA102025
Green SwampFLORIDA92025
ChassahowitzFLORIDA92025
Myakka HeadFLORIDA82010
CroomFLORIDA82025
Ridge HarborFLORIDA82025
NobletonFLORIDA72025
AripekaFLORIDA72025
Myakka Head 2FLORIDA72014
Wildernes PkFLORIDA72014
MicanopyFLORIDA61991
San AntonioFLORIDA62025
Mabel 2FLORIDA62025
RomeoFLORIDA52025
Winter GardnFLORIDA52019
DeanvilleFLORIDA42019
WebbFLORIDA42025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.