BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Peninsular Florida has surged: up 322% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+322%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in Peninsular Florida: up 322% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 6.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 3.4–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.4–6.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 6.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 3.4–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.63.16.2
20264.73.16.3
20274.83.26.4
20284.93.36.4
20294.93.46.5

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Island GroveFLORIDA232024
KissimmeeFLORIDA192024
PinecrestFLORIDA182024
OcalaFLORIDA162024
ChassahowitzFLORIDA162024
BelmoreFLORIDA142024
Citrus ParkFLORIDA142024
St AugustineFLORIDA132024
CitrusFLORIDA132024
GoetheFLORIDA122024
NobletonFLORIDA112024
CroomFLORIDA92024
Myakka HeadFLORIDA82010
KenansvilleFLORIDA82024
ScottsmoorFLORIDA72024
Ft MccoyFLORIDA72024
Myakka Head 2FLORIDA72014
Green SwampFLORIDA72024
Wildernes PkFLORIDA72014
MicanopyFLORIDA61991
San AntonioFLORIDA52024
Polk CityFLORIDA52024
Winter GardnFLORIDA52019
AripekaFLORIDA52023
RomeoFLORIDA42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.