BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Peninsular Florida has surged: up 322% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+322%Since 1968
59Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in Peninsular Florida: up 322% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 6.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 3.4–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2029
4.9Projected 2029 index
3.4–6.595% range
±27.8%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20254.63.16.2
20264.73.16.3
20274.83.26.4
20284.93.36.4
20294.93.46.5

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Peninsular Florida.
Island GroveFLORIDA232024
KissimmeeFLORIDA192024
PinecrestFLORIDA182024
OcalaFLORIDA162024
ChassahowitzFLORIDA162024
BelmoreFLORIDA142024
Citrus ParkFLORIDA142024
St AugustineFLORIDA132024
CitrusFLORIDA132024
GoetheFLORIDA122024
NobletonFLORIDA112024
CroomFLORIDA92024
Myakka HeadFLORIDA82010
KenansvilleFLORIDA82024
ScottsmoorFLORIDA72024
Ft MccoyFLORIDA72024
Myakka Head 2FLORIDA72014
Green SwampFLORIDA72024
Wildernes PkFLORIDA72014
MicanopyFLORIDA61991
San AntonioFLORIDA52024
Polk CityFLORIDA52024
Winter GardnFLORIDA52019
AripekaFLORIDA52023
RomeoFLORIDA42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.