BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Piedmont has surged: up 532% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+532%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
166Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in Piedmont: up 532% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Piedmont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 11 (95% range 9.3–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.3–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Piedmont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 11 (95% range 9.3–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026118.613
2027118.813
2028118.913
2029119.113
2030119.313

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EdenNORTH-CAROLINA422025
Owings 2SOUTH-CAROLINA412025
Salem XrdSOUTH-CAROLINA352019
Good HopeGEORGIA302025
Uwharrie NfNORTH-CAROLINA262001
MoranVIRGINIA262025
Nixburg 2ALABAMA252025
OsmondNORTH-CAROLINA242025
WhitmireSOUTH-CAROLINA242024
Church RoadVIRGINIA242025
Kite LakeGEORGIA232025
WylliesburgVIRGINIA232019
EmmitsburgMARYLAND222025
AmherstVIRGINIA222025
Pw Forest PkVIRGINIA222009
OlneyMARYLAND212025
JordanNORTH-CAROLINA202025
Liberty City 2ALABAMA192025
IjamsvilleMARYLAND192025
YoungsvilleNORTH-CAROLINA192025
BullockNORTH-CAROLINA192025
IrisburgVIRGINIA192025
WedoweeALABAMA182023
DurhamNORTH-CAROLINA182025
MonticelloNORTH-CAROLINA182025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.