BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Piedmont has surged: up 465% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+465%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
166Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in Piedmont: up 465% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Piedmont is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 9.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 9.0–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.0–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Piedmont is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 9.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 9.0–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025108.412
2026118.513
2027118.713
2028118.913
2029119.013

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Salem XrdSOUTH-CAROLINA352019
OakboroNORTH-CAROLINA282024
AmherstVIRGINIA282024
Uwharrie NfNORTH-CAROLINA262001
WhitmireSOUTH-CAROLINA242024
Church RoadVIRGINIA242024
OsmondNORTH-CAROLINA232024
Big IslandVIRGINIA232024
MannboroVIRGINIA232024
WylliesburgVIRGINIA232019
EdenNORTH-CAROLINA222024
Pw Forest PkVIRGINIA222009
JordanNORTH-CAROLINA212024
GuptonNORTH-CAROLINA212024
Liberty City 2ALABAMA202024
WhitesburgGEORGIA202024
OlneyMARYLAND192024
WedoweeALABAMA182023
GoldstonNORTH-CAROLINA182022
MoranVIRGINIA182024
EarltonMARYLAND172024
IjamsvilleMARYLAND162024
DurhamNORTH-CAROLINA162024
OwingsSOUTH-CAROLINA162004
Liberty CityALABAMA152011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.