BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 440% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+440%Since 1968
343Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 440% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 9.8–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2029
12Projected 2029 index
9.8–1495% range
±18.2%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
2025119.213
2026119.313
2027119.513
2028129.614
2029129.814

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Sprott-Cahaba RivALABAMA472014
ErnulNORTH-CAROLINA442009
RheasvilleNORTH-CAROLINA422017
SurryVIRGINIA412024
MansfieldTENNESSEE392024
EpesALABAMA382024
WalterboroSOUTH-CAROLINA382017
KinstonNORTH-CAROLINA362024
JacksonNORTH-CAROLINA362017
WedgeworthALABAMA352024
Adams RunSOUTH-CAROLINA352024
Trace ChoctawMISSISSIPPI322019
OusleyGEORGIA312024
Trace LeeMISSISSIPPI302018
BranchvilleVIRGINIA292024
NewvilleVIRGINIA292024
RiderwoodALABAMA282023
GreensboroALABAMA282024
CottontonALABAMA282024
ShallotteNORTH-CAROLINA281991
DortchesNORTH-CAROLINA282024
BloctonALABAMA272024
Cypress LakesNORTH-CAROLINA272024
BaxleyGEORGIA262019
Warrior StdALABAMA252024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.