BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 440% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+440%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
343Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 440% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 9.8–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.8–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 9.8–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025119.213
2026119.313
2027119.513
2028129.614
2029129.814

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sprott-Cahaba RivALABAMA472014
ErnulNORTH-CAROLINA442009
RheasvilleNORTH-CAROLINA422017
SurryVIRGINIA412024
MansfieldTENNESSEE392024
EpesALABAMA382024
WalterboroSOUTH-CAROLINA382017
KinstonNORTH-CAROLINA362024
JacksonNORTH-CAROLINA362017
WedgeworthALABAMA352024
Adams RunSOUTH-CAROLINA352024
Trace ChoctawMISSISSIPPI322019
OusleyGEORGIA312024
Trace LeeMISSISSIPPI302018
BranchvilleVIRGINIA292024
NewvilleVIRGINIA292024
RiderwoodALABAMA282023
GreensboroALABAMA282024
CottontonALABAMA282024
ShallotteNORTH-CAROLINA281991
DortchesNORTH-CAROLINA282024
BloctonALABAMA272024
Cypress LakesNORTH-CAROLINA272024
BaxleyGEORGIA262019
Warrior StdALABAMA252024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.