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Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 120% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+120%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 120% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 169% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 2.8–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+169%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.8–6.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±67.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 169% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 2.8–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.42.66.2
20264.52.76.3
20274.52.76.4
20284.62.86.4
20294.72.86.5

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DundeeMISSISSIPPI382022
HughesARKANSAS132023
AugustaARKANSAS122001
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA122024
FreetownLOUISIANA102009
BardwellKENTUCKY82003
EudoraARKANSAS72016
RamahLOUISIANA72024
Delta N.F.MISSISSIPPI72021
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI62024
PawpawTENNESSEE62010
Augusta 2ARKANSAS52016
TippoMISSISSIPPI52024
Warren VickMISSISSIPPI52022
HarrisburgARKANSAS42019
EnglandARKANSAS42023
Morgan CityLOUISIANA41976
GonzalesLOUISIANA42014
Morgan CityLOUISIANA42018
South BendARKANSAS32023
SaffellARKANSAS32019
MaynardARKANSAS32024
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY32024
RoselandLOUISIANA32024
KeystoneLOUISIANA31993

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.