BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 120% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+120%Since 1968
64Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 120% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 169% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 2.8–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+169%Change by 2029
4.7Projected 2029 index
2.8–6.595% range
±67.3%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20254.42.66.2
20264.52.76.3
20274.52.76.4
20284.62.86.4
20294.72.86.5

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
DundeeMISSISSIPPI382022
HughesARKANSAS132023
AugustaARKANSAS122001
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA122024
FreetownLOUISIANA102009
BardwellKENTUCKY82003
EudoraARKANSAS72016
RamahLOUISIANA72024
Delta N.F.MISSISSIPPI72021
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI62024
PawpawTENNESSEE62010
Augusta 2ARKANSAS52016
TippoMISSISSIPPI52024
Warren VickMISSISSIPPI52022
HarrisburgARKANSAS42019
EnglandARKANSAS42023
Morgan CityLOUISIANA41976
GonzalesLOUISIANA42014
Morgan CityLOUISIANA42018
South BendARKANSAS32023
SaffellARKANSAS32019
MaynardARKANSAS32024
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY32024
RoselandLOUISIANA32024
KeystoneLOUISIANA31993

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.