BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has surged: up 103% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+103%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 103% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 7.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.9 (95% range 6.1–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.1–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 7.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.9 (95% range 6.1–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.75.911
20268.76.011
20278.86.012
20288.96.112
20298.96.112

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CartervilleLOUISIANA271992
Old MiloARKANSAS252014
Mount UnionLOUISIANA222024
WomackLOUISIANA212024
IvanLOUISIANA212013
LinvilleLOUISIANA182024
NanceARKANSAS172024
Four LakesARKANSAS172001
ClayLOUISIANA172024
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA172021
Magazine MtnARKANSAS162021
Ivan 2LOUISIANA162016
GoodwillLOUISIANA162024
MatoyOKLAHOMA152000
MarionLOUISIANA141996
SandbluffOKLAHOMA141995
PushmatahaOKLAHOMA142023
LockesburgARKANSAS132019
BlakelyARKANSAS121999
HavanaARKANSAS122021
CheniereLOUISIANA122024
MortonTEXAS122024
CrossroadsTEXAS122024
RamseyARKANSAS111997
AshdownARKANSAS112023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.