BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has surged: up 109% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+109%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 109% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 9.0 (95% range 6.3–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.3–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±4.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 9.0 (95% range 6.3–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.76.011
20278.86.112
20288.96.112
20298.96.212
20309.06.312

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NanceARKANSAS272025
CartervilleLOUISIANA271992
Mount UnionLOUISIANA252025
Magazine MtnARKANSAS232025
IvanLOUISIANA212013
StephensARKANSAS192025
Ivan 2LOUISIANA192025
PhillipsOKLAHOMA182025
StarkARKANSAS172025
Four LakesARKANSAS172001
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA172021
MatoyOKLAHOMA162025
Liberty HillTEXAS152025
Smyrna 2TEXAS152025
MarionLOUISIANA141996
Flat CreekLOUISIANA142025
WomackLOUISIANA142025
PushmatahaOKLAHOMA142023
Ouachita NfOKLAHOMA142025
LockesburgARKANSAS132019
Burr FerryLOUISIANA132025
BlakelyARKANSAS121999
HavanaARKANSAS122021
EnterpriseLOUISIANA122025
SandbluffOKLAHOMA122025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.