BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 123% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+123%Since 1968
165Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in Central Hardwoods: up 123% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 57% by 2029 — from 7.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 9.2–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+57%Change by 2029
12Projected 2029 index
9.2–1495% range
±43.3%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
2025118.614
2026118.814
2027128.914
2028129.114
2029129.214

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Central Hardwoods.
ClementineMISSOURI452002
Clementine 2MISSOURI432007
Levee 2KENTUCKY412019
RomeOHIO342024
Trace CollinwoodTENNESSEE282018
CascadeMISSOURI272024
BremenILLINOIS252024
MincyMISSOURI252024
TrianaALABAMA242012
ZionARKANSAS242024
Indian Mound 2TENNESSEE242023
Rueter 2MISSOURI232024
Trace LewisTENNESSEE232017
Mammoth CaveKENTUCKY212014
BlandMISSOURI212024
RoyaltonILLINOIS202024
PalaceMISSOURI202024
Beaverdam LkILLINOIS192023
Osage BeachMISSOURI192024
EugeneMISSOURI182024
CampbellsvilleTENNESSEE182017
Ravenden SpringsARKANSAS172015
LincolnMISSOURI172024
Doe RunMISSOURI172024
Cave In RockILLINOIS162024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.