BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 185% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+185%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 185% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 19% by 2030 — from 4.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.4 (95% range 3.1–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.1–7.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 19% by 2030 — from 4.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.4 (95% range 3.1–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.02.87.3
20275.12.97.3
20285.23.07.4
20295.33.17.5
20305.43.17.6

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA192025
HeyburnOKLAHOMA192025
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA182025
DecaturTEXAS182024
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA172025
GrafordTEXAS152025
LydiaTEXAS122025
GauseTEXAS111997
ChoctawOKLAHOMA102023
TatumsOKLAHOMA102025
Three RiversTEXAS102025
YoakumTEXAS102025
FanninTEXAS92025
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA81976
SkiatookOKLAHOMA82019
CayugaTEXAS82025
BurtonTEXAS72025
Gambill Ref.TEXAS72025
Wills PointTEXAS62023
DuncanOKLAHOMA52025
WeatherfordTEXAS52025
CottonwoodTEXAS52024
HearneTEXAS52025
Arenosa CrkTEXAS42025
AlbanyTEXAS42022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.