BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 165% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+165%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 165% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 34% by 2029 — from 4.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.3 (95% range 3.1–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.1–7.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 34% by 2029 — from 4.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.3 (95% range 3.1–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.02.87.2
20265.12.97.3
20275.22.97.4
20285.23.07.5
20295.33.17.5

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HeyburnOKLAHOMA312024
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA242024
DecaturTEXAS182024
TatumsOKLAHOMA152024
GauseTEXAS111997
ChoctawOKLAHOMA102023
RhomeTEXAS102024
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA81976
SkiatookOKLAHOMA82019
NobleOKLAHOMA72024
SeldenTEXAS72024
CayugaTEXAS72024
Massey LakeTEXAS62023
CarlosTEXAS62024
Wills PointTEXAS62023
DuncanOKLAHOMA52024
Glen RoseTEXAS52024
CottonwoodTEXAS52024
Oak Grove 2TEXAS52024
Thornton 3TEXAS52024
YoakumTEXAS52024
BonnerTEXAS52023
Gambill Ref.TEXAS52024
GrafordTEXAS42016
AlbanyTEXAS42022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.