BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Shortgrass Prairie has held roughly steady: up 3% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

+3%Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.040.000.08
20250.040.000.08
20260.040.000.08
20270.040.000.07
20280.040.000.07

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SabinosoNEW-MEXICO32021
Mica ButteCOLORADO21977
TrincheraCOLORADO22004
ElbertCOLORADO22007
VillegreenCOLORADO12023
Cone MtnCOLORADO12018
NinaviewCOLORADO12018
CrawfordNEBRASKA12017
VariaderoNEW-MEXICO12021
HobbsNEW-MEXICO12005
RankinTEXAS12010
MiamiTEXAS11986
MidlandTEXAS11995

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.