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Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 529% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+529%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
155Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 529% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 22% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 2.4–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.4–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 22% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 2.4–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.12.24.0
20263.12.24.1
20273.22.34.1
20283.22.34.2
20293.32.44.2

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wray GulchCOLORADO342023
Mesaverde NpCOLORADO342024
Douglas PassCOLORADO292024
Baxter PassCOLORADO272024
Moquith MtnUTAH192024
ShivwitzUTAH182024
AngoraCOLORADO162024
De BequeCOLORADO142024
La Sal 3UTAH142024
Black Sulphur CrCOLORADO132024
RosevaleCOLORADO122024
La Sal 2UTAH122006
AnimasCOLORADO112000
MoabUTAH102024
DinosaurCOLORADO92024
Willow CreekUTAH92024
Main CanyonUTAH92024
ClevelandUTAH82024
Cane Spr DesUTAH82010
Wet Mtns.COLORADO72024
NuclaCOLORADO72024
DulceNEW-MEXICO72024
MonticelloUTAH72024
CanyonlandsUTAH72006
DeltaCOLORADO62021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.