BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Atlantic Northern Forest has risen sharply: up 75% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

+75%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Atlantic Northern Forest. See the full index history below.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.07
20260.030.000.07
20270.040.000.07
20280.040.000.07
20290.040.000.07

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HartfordMAINE41997
TurnerMAINE21997
South ArmMAINE21998
ChesterfieldMASSACHUSETTS22001
SheffieldMASSACHUSETTS22004
PeterboroughNEW-HAMPSHIRE22019
HopkintonNEW-HAMPSHIRE22019
New HartfordCONNECTICUT11987
New HartfordCONNECTICUT12001
BiddefordMAINE11986
N OrangeMASSACHUSETTS12014
PittsfieldMASSACHUSETTS12003
FitzwilliamNEW-HAMPSHIRE12024
FranconiaNEW-HAMPSHIRE11977
MilanNEW-HAMPSHIRE11980
Jeffers NtchNEW-HAMPSHIRE12016
PetersburgNEW-YORK12012
S HoriconNEW-YORK12016
DegrasseNEW-YORK12021
WanakenaNEW-YORK12013
GaysvilleVERMONT11992
Post MillsVERMONT11988
W RutlandVERMONT12013
East HavenVERMONT11997
HardwickVERMONT11999

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.