BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has held roughly steady: up 3% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+3%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
56Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 82% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.04–0.49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+82%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.27Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.4995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±86.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 82% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.04–0.49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.260.030.49
20260.260.040.49
20270.260.040.49
20280.260.040.49
20290.270.040.49

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
W ShokanNEW-YORK52019
Harris HillNEW-YORK52005
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK42019
ClintonNEW-YORK41993
Valley CityOHIO32024
CatskillsNEW-YORK22015
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK22022
CayugaNEW-YORK22023
E YoungstownNEW-YORK22016
ByronNEW-YORK21989
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK22000
North EastonNEW-YORK22023
PittsfieldOHIO22022
Herner CrnsOHIO22016
HiramOHIO22018
EspyvillePENNSYLVANIA22017
Ferris CrnrsPENNSYLVANIA22024
ShaftsburyVERMONT22005
RhinebeckNEW-YORK12024
HighlandNEW-YORK12006
AusterlitzNEW-YORK11974
GhentNEW-YORK12023
DuanesburgNEW-YORK12023
RomulusNEW-YORK11986
MacdougallNEW-YORK12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.