BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blackburnian Warbler In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Blackburnian Warbler in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 586% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+586%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
173Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blackburnian Warbler has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 586% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blackburnian Warbler In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blackburnian Warbler in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.2 (95% range 1.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.00–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blackburnian Warbler in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.2 (95% range 1.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.931.4
20261.20.941.4
20271.20.961.4
20281.20.981.4
20291.21.001.4

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Blackburnian Warbler in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BusickNORTH-CAROLINA251996
EldredPENNSYLVANIA212022
Glade Run 2WEST-VIRGINIA162024
Roulette 2PENNSYLVANIA152024
AnsoniaPENNSYLVANIA152024
RidgwayPENNSYLVANIA122018
McdonoughNEW-YORK112017
Whig HillPENNSYLVANIA102024
OdinPENNSYLVANIA102024
CattaraugusNEW-YORK92019
RasselasPENNSYLVANIA92022
DuboistownPENNSYLVANIA92024
LoguePENNSYLVANIA82023
Broad Mtn.PENNSYLVANIA82024
Glade RunWEST-VIRGINIA82002
BemisWEST-VIRGINIA82024
OteenNORTH-CAROLINA72023
Marsh HillPENNSYLVANIA72024
S Berne 2NEW-YORK62024
French Broad RiverNORTH-CAROLINA62024
N Pine GrovePENNSYLVANIA62024
Russell CityPENNSYLVANIA62024
PoyntellePENNSYLVANIA62024
Ltl Pine CrPENNSYLVANIA62024
Mountain Lk.VIRGINIA62018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.