BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blackburnian Warbler In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Blackburnian Warbler in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 561% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+561%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
174Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blackburnian Warbler has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 561% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blackburnian Warbler In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blackburnian Warbler in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 1.0–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±4.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blackburnian Warbler in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 1.0–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.941.4
20271.20.961.4
20281.20.971.4
20291.20.991.4
20301.21.01.4

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Blackburnian Warbler in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BusickNORTH-CAROLINA251996
EldredPENNSYLVANIA212022
Glade Run 2WEST-VIRGINIA192025
LynchPENNSYLVANIA122025
OdinPENNSYLVANIA122025
RidgwayPENNSYLVANIA122018
AnsoniaPENNSYLVANIA122025
McdonoughNEW-YORK112017
NagineyPENNSYLVANIA112025
Russell CityPENNSYLVANIA102025
W AugustaVIRGINIA102025
CattaraugusNEW-YORK92019
RasselasPENNSYLVANIA92022
DuboistownPENNSYLVANIA92024
Broad Mtn.PENNSYLVANIA92025
MunsonPENNSYLVANIA82025
Roulette 2PENNSYLVANIA82025
Newfound GapTENNESSEE82025
Glade RunWEST-VIRGINIA82002
OteenNORTH-CAROLINA72023
Ltl Pine CrPENNSYLVANIA72025
GladyWEST-VIRGINIA72025
S Berne 2NEW-YORK62024
Whig HillPENNSYLVANIA62025
Cherry SprsPENNSYLVANIA62025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.