BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blackburnian Warbler In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Blackburnian Warbler in Prairie Hardwood Transition has held roughly steady: up 2% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+2%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blackburnian Warbler in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Blackburnian Warbler In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blackburnian Warbler in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blackburnian Warbler in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.06
20260.030.000.06
20270.030.000.06
20280.030.000.06
20290.030.000.06

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Blackburnian Warbler in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pigeon CreekWISCONSIN52019
GreshamWISCONSIN42024
Barry S.G.A.MICHIGAN22006
Indiana DuneINDIANA12006
ScottvilleMICHIGAN12019
Big Blue LkMICHIGAN11998
BravoMICHIGAN12010
MontereyMICHIGAN12023
DeckervilleMICHIGAN12009
Allegan WmaMICHIGAN11997
PrincetonMINNESOTA11970
EvergreenMINNESOTA12018
LoraineWISCONSIN12015
CumberlandWISCONSIN12009
MerrillWISCONSIN12024
Stevens PtWISCONSIN12023
Pt WashingtnWISCONSIN11972

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.