BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blackburnian Warbler In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Blackburnian Warbler in Prairie Hardwood Transition has edged up: up 21% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+21%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blackburnian Warbler in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Blackburnian Warbler In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blackburnian Warbler in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blackburnian Warbler in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.030.000.06
20270.030.000.06
20280.030.000.06
20290.030.000.06
20300.030.000.06

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Blackburnian Warbler in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pigeon CreekWISCONSIN52019
Barry S.G.A.MICHIGAN22006
GreshamWISCONSIN22025
Indiana DuneINDIANA12006
ScottvilleMICHIGAN12019
Big Blue LkMICHIGAN11998
BravoMICHIGAN12010
MontereyMICHIGAN12023
DeckervilleMICHIGAN12009
RochesterMICHIGAN12025
Allegan WmaMICHIGAN11997
PrincetonMINNESOTA11970
EvergreenMINNESOTA12018
LoraineWISCONSIN12015
CumberlandWISCONSIN12009
MerrillWISCONSIN12024
Stevens PtWISCONSIN12023
Pt WashingtnWISCONSIN11972

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.