BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blackburnian Warbler In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

Blackburnian Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 138% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+138%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
153Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blackburnian Warbler has surged in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 138% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blackburnian Warbler In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blackburnian Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.9 (95% range 2.5–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.5–5.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blackburnian Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.9 (95% range 2.5–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.72.45.1
20273.82.45.1
20283.82.45.2
20293.82.55.2
20303.92.55.2

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Blackburnian Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NorthfieldMAINE361981
WaiteMAINE281977
InletNEW-YORK282017
PittsfieldMASSACHUSETTS142016
FranconiaNEW-HAMPSHIRE132025
SabattisNEW-YORK131983
Carrying PlMAINE122025
Old Forge 2NEW-YORK122019
St Regis FlsNEW-YORK112017
MarlboroVERMONT112025
Wilson MillsMAINE102025
Pillsbury PdMAINE101968
PetersburgNEW-YORK102013
Blue Ridge SNEW-YORK102010
LandgroveVERMONT102025
CummingtonMASSACHUSETTS92014
Dixvil NotchNEW-HAMPSHIRE92017
ClarksvilleNEW-HAMPSHIRE92025
Dixville Notch 2NEW-HAMPSHIRE92025
Horse MtnMAINE82011
ChesterfieldMASSACHUSETTS82025
GabrielsNEW-YORK82025
GaysvilleVERMONT82025
Northfld FlsVERMONT82025
WalpoleNEW-HAMPSHIRE72025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.