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Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blackburnian Warbler In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

Blackburnian Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 118% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+118%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
153Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blackburnian Warbler has surged in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 118% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blackburnian Warbler In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blackburnian Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 3.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 2.5–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.5–5.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blackburnian Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 3.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 2.5–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.72.45.1
20263.82.45.1
20273.82.45.2
20283.82.45.2
20293.92.55.2

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Blackburnian Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NorthfieldMAINE361981
WaiteMAINE281977
InletNEW-YORK282017
PittsfieldMASSACHUSETTS142016
SabattisNEW-YORK131983
Dixville Notch 2NEW-HAMPSHIRE122024
Old Forge 2NEW-YORK122019
St Regis FlsNEW-YORK112017
Pillsbury PdMAINE101968
ClarksvilleNEW-HAMPSHIRE102024
PetersburgNEW-YORK102013
Blue Ridge SNEW-YORK102010
StrattonVERMONT102024
Carrying PlMAINE92024
CummingtonMASSACHUSETTS92014
Dixvil NotchNEW-HAMPSHIRE92017
East CalaisVERMONT92024
Horse MtnMAINE82011
FranconiaNEW-HAMPSHIRE82024
East HavenVERMONT82024
ChesterfieldMASSACHUSETTS72024
GlenNEW-HAMPSHIRE72024
HighmarketNEW-YORK72024
StoweVERMONT72024
Wilson MillsMAINE62024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.