BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blackburnian Warbler In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Blackburnian Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 295% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+295%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blackburnian Warbler has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 295% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Blackburnian Warbler In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blackburnian Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 116% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.14–0.49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+116%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.32Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.14–0.4995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±74.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blackburnian Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 116% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.14–0.49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.300.130.48
20260.310.140.48
20270.310.140.48
20280.310.140.48
20290.320.140.49

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Blackburnian Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ParishvilleNEW-YORK52024
N WilmurtNEW-YORK41997
North PownalVERMONT42006
RandolphNEW-YORK32018
OrleansNEW-YORK21978
WillsboroNEW-YORK22023
HighlandNEW-YORK12010
W ShokanNEW-YORK12012
AusterlitzNEW-YORK11974
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK12012
CayugaNEW-YORK11990
BranchportNEW-YORK12014
Canadice LNEW-YORK12015
MendonNEW-YORK11986
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK12024
HamburgNEW-YORK12000
SheridanNEW-YORK11991
Cherry HillNEW-YORK12009
NashvilleNEW-YORK11968
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK12015
PulaskiNEW-YORK12015
ClintonNEW-YORK11972
SalemNEW-YORK11974
North EastonNEW-YORK11990
HopkintonNEW-YORK12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.