BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blackburnian Warbler In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Blackburnian Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 317% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+317%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blackburnian Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

Blackburnian Warbler In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blackburnian Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 81% by 2030 — from 0.17 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.31 (95% range 0.13–0.48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+81%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.31Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.13–0.4895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±82.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blackburnian Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 81% by 2030 — from 0.17 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.31 (95% range 0.13–0.48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.300.120.47
20270.300.130.47
20280.300.130.48
20290.300.130.48
20300.310.130.48

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Blackburnian Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
N WilmurtNEW-YORK41997
North PownalVERMONT42006
RandolphNEW-YORK32018
ShaftsburyVERMONT32025
OrleansNEW-YORK21978
SheridanNEW-YORK22025
WillsboroNEW-YORK22023
HighlandNEW-YORK12010
W ShokanNEW-YORK12012
AusterlitzNEW-YORK11974
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK12025
CayugaNEW-YORK11990
BranchportNEW-YORK12014
Canadice LNEW-YORK12015
MendonNEW-YORK11986
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK12024
HamburgNEW-YORK12000
Cherry HillNEW-YORK12009
NashvilleNEW-YORK11968
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK12015
PulaskiNEW-YORK12015
ClintonNEW-YORK11972
SalemNEW-YORK11974
North EastonNEW-YORK11990
ParishvilleNEW-YORK12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.