BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Vulture In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieGeneralists

Black Vulture in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 464% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+464%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Vulture has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 464% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 13 (95% range 8.1–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.1–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 13 (95% range 8.1–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025127.317
2026137.518
2027137.718
2028137.918
2029138.118

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Black Vulture in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
McfaddinTEXAS782016
Goliad PrairieTEXAS722016
Moon Lake 2TEXAS612024
Bayside 3TEXAS522024
Rock IslandTEXAS422024
IndianolaTEXAS332024
Hinkles FerTEXAS202024
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA182024
WinnieTEXAS182024
KatyTEXAS152024
Port AcresTEXAS112024
ChinquapinTEXAS102024
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS92024
Moon LakeTEXAS82011
HackberryLOUISIANA72016
Sabine Nwr 2LOUISIANA72015
StowellTEXAS72023
BaysideTEXAS72010
JuniorLOUISIANA61991
GlencoeLOUISIANA62018
WoodlawnLOUISIANA62014
Oyster LakeTEXAS62024
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS62023
DanburyTEXAS52024
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA42019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.