BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black Vulture In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieBirds of prey

Black Vulture in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 497% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+497%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Vulture has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 497% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Black Vulture In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 14 (95% range 8.5–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+0%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.5–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 14 (95% range 8.5–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026137.618
2027137.818
2028138.018
2029138.318
2030148.519

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Black Vulture in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
McfaddinTEXAS782016
Goliad PrairieTEXAS722016
Moon Lake 2TEXAS522025
ChinquapinTEXAS452025
Bayside 3TEXAS382025
Rock IslandTEXAS372025
IndianolaTEXAS332024
Hinkles FerTEXAS322025
WinnieTEXAS272025
KatyTEXAS272025
Port AcresTEXAS102025
DanburyTEXAS92025
Moon LakeTEXAS82011
HackberryLOUISIANA72016
Sabine Nwr 2LOUISIANA72015
BaysideTEXAS72010
JuniorLOUISIANA61991
GlencoeLOUISIANA62018
WoodlawnLOUISIANA62014
StowellTEXAS62025
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS62023
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA42019
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS42025
LafitteLOUISIANA31991
RichardLOUISIANA32018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.