BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black Vulture In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsBirds of prey

Black Vulture in Tamaulipan Brushlands has surged: up 474% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+474%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Vulture has surged in Tamaulipan Brushlands: up 474% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Black Vulture In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 7.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.7 (95% range 2.4–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.4–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 7.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.7 (95% range 2.4–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.31.911
20276.42.011
20286.52.111
20296.62.211
20306.72.411

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Black Vulture in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EncinalTEXAS702009
Millett 2TEXAS522024
DilleyTEXAS212025
HondoTEXAS202025
RaymondvilleTEXAS152025
Encinal 2TEXAS142025
KingsvilleTEXAS102024
La PryorTEXAS82017
ZapataTEXAS71979
El IndioTEXAS72001
RandadoTEXAS62025
CatarinaTEXAS62009
Catarina 2TEXAS62017
RachalTEXAS42023
SejitaTEXAS42024
George WestTEXAS32025
GuerraTEXAS32025
Catarina 3TEXAS32025
Pedro CreekTEXAS32005
Agua NuevaTEXAS22023
Mirando CityTEXAS22025
San YgnacioTEXAS21985
LaredoTEXAS22021
MillettTEXAS22009
Cavasara Cr.TEXAS22023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.