BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Vulture In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsGeneralists

Black Vulture in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has surged: up 176% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

+176%Since 1977
8Routes In Region
29Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Black Vulture has surged in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: up 176% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 504% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.60 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+504%Change by 2029
0.60Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.995% range
±82.5%Backtest error
19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.580.001.8
20260.590.001.9
20270.590.001.9
20280.600.001.9
20290.600.001.9

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Black Vulture in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Casa GrandeARIZONA812022
LukevilleARIZONA41979
Palo Verde 2ARIZONA42023
Red RockARIZONA32014
Red Rock 2ARIZONA32024
Organ PipeARIZONA22023
AjoARIZONA12001
Cactus ForestARIZONA12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.