BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black Vulture In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastBirds of prey

Black Vulture in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 56× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

56×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
90Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black Vulture in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast. See the full index history below.

Black Vulture In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 73% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.3–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+73%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 73% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.3–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.91.12.6
20271.91.22.7
20282.01.22.7
20292.01.32.7
20302.01.32.8

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Black Vulture in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Snow HillMARYLAND251976
Tall TimbersMARYLAND232014
Forest GroveMARYLAND172023
MiltonDELAWARE122015
UncasvilleCONNECTICUT112025
DavidsnvilleMARYLAND102025
IndiantownMARYLAND92014
ViennaMARYLAND82025
St. George'S IslandMARYLAND82017
PomfretMARYLAND72024
JessupMARYLAND72025
WalnutMARYLAND72024
Toms RiverNEW-JERSEY72024
Cape CharlesVIRGINIA72018
HarringtonDELAWARE62025
HughesvilleMARYLAND62024
MillingtonMARYLAND62025
NottinghamMARYLAND62025
White StoneVIRGINIA62024
QuinbyVIRGINIA62025
FredericaDELAWARE52014
MillsboroDELAWARE52021
MadisonMARYLAND52025
Port RoyalVIRGINIA52025
ShermanCONNECTICUT42019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.