BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Vulture In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastGeneralists

Black Vulture in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 67× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

67×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
90Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Vulture has surged in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 67× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black Vulture In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.1 (95% range 1.3–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+0%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.1 (95% range 1.3–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.91.22.6
20261.91.22.7
20272.01.32.7
20282.01.32.7
20292.11.32.8

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Black Vulture in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NottinghamMARYLAND312024
Snow HillMARYLAND251976
Tall TimbersMARYLAND232014
Port RoyalVIRGINIA212019
Forest GroveMARYLAND172023
MiltonDELAWARE122015
MadisonMARYLAND102024
MillingtonMARYLAND92024
IndiantownMARYLAND92014
HongaMARYLAND82024
St. George'S IslandMARYLAND82017
DavidsnvilleMARYLAND82024
PomfretMARYLAND72024
WalnutMARYLAND72024
Toms RiverNEW-JERSEY72024
Cape CharlesVIRGINIA72018
HughesvilleMARYLAND62024
White StoneVIRGINIA62024
FredericaDELAWARE52014
MillsboroDELAWARE52021
Pepperbox 2DELAWARE52024
ShermanCONNECTICUT42019
Holleyville 2DELAWARE42019
Milton 2DELAWARE42017
Piney NeckMARYLAND42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.