BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Vulture In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGeneralists

Black Vulture in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 691% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+691%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
161Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Vulture has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 691% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black Vulture In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 0.57 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.46 (95% range 0.28–0.65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.46Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.28–0.6595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 0.57 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.46 (95% range 0.28–0.65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.430.240.61
20260.440.250.62
20270.450.260.63
20280.460.270.64
20290.460.280.65

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Black Vulture in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
StevensonALABAMA192024
GreensportALABAMA162024
WilliamsportMARYLAND162024
Star TanneryVIRGINIA132023
LandisburgPENNSYLVANIA102017
BlacksburgVIRGINIA102019
Mohican S.F.OHIO92022
Drehersville 2PENNSYLVANIA72021
SmootWEST-VIRGINIA72019
Bolins MillsOHIO62024
Jones GapTENNESSEE62019
SaltvilleVIRGINIA62024
DrummondALABAMA52024
SunnybrookKENTUCKY52019
SturgillsNORTH-CAROLINA52024
OmegaOHIO52024
Jefferson CtyTENNESSEE52011
JeromeVIRGINIA52023
BrooksvilleALABAMA42023
SmithsburgMARYLAND42012
WestbrookvleNEW-YORK42018
RydePENNSYLVANIA42003
Peru MillsPENNSYLVANIA42017
DoylesburgPENNSYLVANIA42023
BerwickPENNSYLVANIA42022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.