BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black Vulture In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsBirds of prey

Black Vulture in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 723% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+723%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
162Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Vulture has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 723% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black Vulture In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.47 (95% range 0.29–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.47Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.29–0.6695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.47 (95% range 0.29–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.440.260.62
20270.450.260.63
20280.460.270.64
20290.470.280.65
20300.470.290.66

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Black Vulture in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
StevensonALABAMA192024
Star TanneryVIRGINIA132023
WilliamsportMARYLAND112025
LandisburgPENNSYLVANIA102017
BlacksburgVIRGINIA102019
Mohican S.F.OHIO92022
BrooksvilleALABAMA82025
SmootWEST-VIRGINIA72025
MartinsburgWEST-VIRGINIA72025
RamseysburgNEW-JERSEY62025
Bolins MillsOHIO62024
Jones GapTENNESSEE62019
SaltvilleVIRGINIA62024
MaytownALABAMA52024
DrummondALABAMA52024
SunnybrookKENTUCKY52019
SturgillsNORTH-CAROLINA52024
OmegaOHIO52024
Jefferson CtyTENNESSEE52011
Signal MtnTENNESSEE52025
FincastleVIRGINIA52025
Rural RetrtVIRGINIA52025
SmithsburgMARYLAND42012
WestbrookvleNEW-YORK42018
RydePENNSYLVANIA42003

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.