BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Vulture In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainGeneralists

Black Vulture in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 174% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+174%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
322Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Vulture has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 174% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 22% by 2029 — from 3.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.5 (95% range 3.4–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.4–5.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 22% by 2029 — from 3.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.5 (95% range 3.4–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.33.25.4
20264.33.25.4
20274.43.35.5
20284.43.35.6
20294.53.45.6

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Black Vulture in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MoscowTENNESSEE462024
NewtonGEORGIA432024
ShilohGEORGIA372024
Pineora 2GEORGIA332024
DaleSOUTH-CAROLINA312024
EpesALABAMA292024
Mt CarmelMISSISSIPPI282016
VidaliaGEORGIA272024
CornlandVIRGINIA262014
CaliforniaNORTH-CAROLINA242013
Grove HillALABAMA232023
FolkstonGEORGIA232022
Lake MaryMISSISSIPPI221977
WhitehallALABAMA212024
WhitehouseALABAMA202023
DolesGEORGIA202019
PoplarvilleMISSISSIPPI201978
BelmontFLORIDA182024
MonticelloMISSISSIPPI182008
PinewoodSOUTH-CAROLINA182017
Leaf RiverMISSISSIPPI162013
WeirMISSISSIPPI162023
WalterboroSOUTH-CAROLINA162017
IrwintonGEORGIA152024
RomeSOUTH-CAROLINA132023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.