BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black Vulture In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyBirds of prey

Black Vulture in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 262% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+262%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Vulture has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 262% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Black Vulture In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 50% by 2030 — from 3.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 2.8–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+50%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.8–7.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 50% by 2030 — from 3.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 2.8–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.82.57.1
20274.92.67.2
20285.02.77.3
20295.12.87.4
20305.22.87.5

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Black Vulture in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ShawLOUISIANA722024
EudoraARKANSAS461967
BelairLOUISIANA322025
RamahLOUISIANA262024
GibsonLOUISIANA252019
River RoadLOUISIANA212025
BerwickLOUISIANA192018
KraemerLOUISIANA162025
FreetownLOUISIANA142019
GonzalesLOUISIANA142019
Port AllenLOUISIANA142022
Panther Swamp NwrMISSISSIPPI142018
Eagle LakeMISSISSIPPI132025
TiptonvilleTENNESSEE132025
Baton RougeLOUISIANA102025
TippoMISSISSIPPI92025
Tchula 3MISSISSIPPI62023
Delta N.F.MISSISSIPPI52008
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI52025
CarlisleLOUISIANA41988
RoselandLOUISIANA32025
RayvilleLOUISIANA31988
Warren VickMISSISSIPPI32018
SaffellARKANSAS22018
KeystoneLOUISIANA22001

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.