BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Vulture In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyGeneralists

Black Vulture in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 336% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+336%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Vulture has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 336% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Black Vulture In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 6.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 2.9–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.9–7.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 6.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 2.9–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.82.57.1
20264.92.67.2
20275.02.77.3
20285.12.87.4
20295.22.97.5

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Black Vulture in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ShawLOUISIANA722024
EudoraARKANSAS461967
FrogmoreLOUISIANA372024
RamahLOUISIANA262024
GibsonLOUISIANA252019
BelairLOUISIANA242024
BerwickLOUISIANA192018
River RoadLOUISIANA162024
FreetownLOUISIANA142019
GonzalesLOUISIANA142019
Port AllenLOUISIANA142022
Panther Swamp NwrMISSISSIPPI142018
Eagle LakeMISSISSIPPI122024
MayflowerLOUISIANA82024
KraemerLOUISIANA72024
RoselandLOUISIANA62022
Tchula 3MISSISSIPPI62023
Delta N.F.MISSISSIPPI52008
CarlisleLOUISIANA41988
RayvilleLOUISIANA31988
Baton RougeLOUISIANA32023
TippoMISSISSIPPI32023
Warren VickMISSISSIPPI32018
SaffellARKANSAS22018
KeystoneLOUISIANA22001

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.