BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Vulture In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGeneralists

Black Vulture in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 561% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+561%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Vulture has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 561% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 254% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.15–0.59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±116.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+254%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.37Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.15–0.5995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±116.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 254% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.15–0.59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±116.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.340.120.56
20260.350.130.57
20270.350.130.58
20280.360.140.58
20290.370.150.59

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Black Vulture in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WinchellTEXAS102023
ShieldsTEXAS102001
Pear ValleyTEXAS72024
SilverTEXAS62022
Shields 2TEXAS62023
EldoradoTEXAS22021
GraybackTEXAS12012
Mertzon 2TEXAS12022
CharlieTEXAS12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.