BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black Vulture In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieBirds of prey

Black Vulture in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 321% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+321%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Vulture has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 321% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Black Vulture In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 64% by 2030 — from 0.22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.14–0.58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±129.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+64%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.36Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.14–0.5895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±129.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Vulture in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 64% by 2030 — from 0.22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.14–0.58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±129.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.340.120.56
20270.340.120.57
20280.350.130.57
20290.360.140.58
20300.360.140.58

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Black Vulture in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ShieldsTEXAS102001
WinchellTEXAS62025
SilverTEXAS62022
Shields 2TEXAS42025
Pear ValleyTEXAS22025
EldoradoTEXAS22021
Mertzon 2TEXAS22025
RandlettOKLAHOMA12025
GraybackTEXAS12012
Beaver CreekTEXAS12025
CharlieTEXAS12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.