BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-throated Sparrow In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinArid-land birds

Black-throated Sparrow in Great Basin has fallen sharply: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-65%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
122Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-throated Sparrow has fallen sharply in Great Basin: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Black-throated Sparrow In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Sparrow in Great Basin is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 0.00–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Sparrow in Great Basin is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 0.00–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.30.007.6
20263.20.007.6
20273.20.007.5
20283.20.007.5
20293.10.007.5

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Black-throated Sparrow in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ThorneNEVADA1361979
Big PineCALIFORNIA842024
SutcliffeNEVADA751972
Rye PatchNEVADA721974
Big Smokey VNEVADA611988
Darroughs Hot SpgsNEVADA542024
Piute MdwsNEVADA532024
Desert NwrNEVADA522024
Sand PassNEVADA502024
Trout CreekOREGON462021
Tule ValleyUTAH442013
WillisNEVADA372024
HikoNEVADA312023
Mill CityNEVADA312021
Fish CreekNEVADA282021
Notch PeakUTAH282024
Carson RiverNEVADA272005
Salt SpringsUTAH252024
CallaoUTAH232024
Dobbin CreekNEVADA222018
Gold HillUTAH222024
Catlow RimOREGON212024
BentonCALIFORNIA202024
CalienteNEVADA182021
GandyUTAH172015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.