BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-throated Sparrow In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinArid-land birds

Black-throated Sparrow in Great Basin has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-59%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
122Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-throated Sparrow has fallen sharply in Great Basin: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Black-throated Sparrow In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Sparrow in Great Basin is projected to fall about 41% by 2030 — from 5.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 0.00–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-41%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Sparrow in Great Basin is projected to fall about 41% by 2030 — from 5.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 0.00–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.40.007.7
20273.40.007.7
20283.30.007.7
20293.30.007.6
20303.30.007.6

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Black-throated Sparrow in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ThorneNEVADA1361979
CalienteNEVADA1152025
SutcliffeNEVADA751972
Gold HillUTAH732025
Rye PatchNEVADA721974
Big PineCALIFORNIA702025
Big Smokey VNEVADA611988
Piute MdwsNEVADA592025
Salt SpringsUTAH562025
Darroughs Hot SpgsNEVADA542024
Fish SpringsUTAH392025
Sand PassNEVADA372025
CallaoUTAH342025
Mill CityNEVADA312021
Fish CreekNEVADA282021
Notch PeakUTAH282024
Carson RiverNEVADA272005
Catlow RimOREGON262025
HikoNEVADA242025
Dobbin CreekNEVADA222018
BentonCALIFORNIA202025
Blizzard GapOREGON182025
Desert NwrNEVADA172025
GandyUTAH172015
OreanaNEVADA152003

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.