BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-throated Sparrow In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsArid-land birds

Black-throated Sparrow in Tamaulipan Brushlands has collapsed: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-94%Since 1969
25Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Black-throated Sparrow has collapsed in Tamaulipan Brushlands: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Sparrow in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 4.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±147.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029
0.00Projected 2029 index
0.00–2995% range
±147.4%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.000.0029
20260.000.0029
20270.000.0029
20280.000.0029
20290.000.0029

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Black-throated Sparrow in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
EncinalTEXAS432010
CatarinaTEXAS422010
Catarina 2TEXAS402017
El IndioTEXAS322007
LaredoTEXAS252023
Encinal 2TEXAS152024
San YgnacioTEXAS131985
George WestTEXAS122024
Catarina 3TEXAS92024
Mirando CityTEXAS72024
ZapataTEXAS51987
Agua NuevaTEXAS42023
GuerraTEXAS42023
Millett 2TEXAS42024
RachalTEXAS32023
HondoTEXAS32019
El SauzTEXAS32023
SejitaTEXAS32021
La PryorTEXAS22003
MillettTEXAS22012
Pedro CreekTEXAS22010
KingsvilleTEXAS11985
RandadoTEXAS12024
DilleyTEXAS12024
Cavasara Cr.TEXAS12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.