BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-throated Sparrow In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieArid-land birds

Black-throated Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-65%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-throated Sparrow has fallen sharply in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Black-throated Sparrow In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 42% by 2030 — from 0.28 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-42%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±71.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 42% by 2030 — from 0.28 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.160.000.43
20270.160.000.43
20280.160.000.43
20290.160.000.43
20300.160.000.43

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Black-throated Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MertzonTEXAS92019
Mertzon 2TEXAS82025
SilverTEXAS82025
Shields 2TEXAS42016
WinchellTEXAS32025
EldoradoTEXAS32023
ShieldsTEXAS22001
ChesterOKLAHOMA11984
Pear ValleyTEXAS12025
ChildressTEXAS11974
WallTEXAS12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.