BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-throated Sparrow In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieArid-land birds

Black-throated Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie has collapsed: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-90%Since 1969
23Routes In Region
52Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Black-throated Sparrow has collapsed in Shortgrass Prairie: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 195% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.00–0.96). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±216.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+195%Change by 2029
0.25Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.9695% range
±216.5%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.270.000.97
20260.260.000.97
20270.260.000.96
20280.250.000.96
20290.250.000.96

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Black-throated Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie.
PecosTEXAS822017
MentoneTEXAS242015
WinkTEXAS91986
TucumcariNEW-MEXICO81975
Kermit 2TEXAS62023
VillegreenCOLORADO41998
KermitTEXAS41999
SabinosoNEW-MEXICO32021
Cooley LakeNEW-MEXICO22021
San SimonNEW-MEXICO22018
RankinTEXAS22024
Frankel CityTEXAS22015
Cone MtnCOLORADO12024
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO11997
MaljamarNEW-MEXICO11975
VariaderoNEW-MEXICO12022
RosebudNEW-MEXICO12024
PepNEW-MEXICO12008
LoganNEW-MEXICO12024
ChanningTEXAS11991
StilesTEXAS12024
TenmileTEXAS12017
SaragosaTEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.