BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-throated Sparrow In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieArid-land birds

Black-throated Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie has collapsed: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-90%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-throated Sparrow has collapsed in Shortgrass Prairie: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Black-throated Sparrow In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 195% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.00–0.96). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±216.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+195%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.25Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±216.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 195% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.00–0.96). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±216.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.270.000.97
20260.260.000.97
20270.260.000.96
20280.250.000.96
20290.250.000.96

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Black-throated Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PecosTEXAS822017
MentoneTEXAS242015
WinkTEXAS91986
TucumcariNEW-MEXICO81975
Kermit 2TEXAS62023
VillegreenCOLORADO41998
KermitTEXAS41999
SabinosoNEW-MEXICO32021
Cooley LakeNEW-MEXICO22021
San SimonNEW-MEXICO22018
RankinTEXAS22024
Frankel CityTEXAS22015
Cone MtnCOLORADO12024
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO11997
MaljamarNEW-MEXICO11975
VariaderoNEW-MEXICO12022
RosebudNEW-MEXICO12024
PepNEW-MEXICO12008
LoganNEW-MEXICO12024
ChanningTEXAS11991
StilesTEXAS12024
TenmileTEXAS12017
SaragosaTEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.