BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-throated Sparrow In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauArid-land birds

Black-throated Sparrow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has declined: down 44% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-44%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
104Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-throated Sparrow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau. See the full index history below.

Black-throated Sparrow In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Sparrow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.5 (95% range 1.3–7.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–7.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Sparrow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.5 (95% range 1.3–7.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.51.27.7
20264.51.27.7
20274.51.37.7
20284.51.37.7
20294.51.37.8

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Black-throated Sparrow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Navajo TrailARIZONA682024
ShivwitzUTAH662024
NotomUTAH592024
PageARIZONA572019
ToroweapARIZONA512024
Arches NpUTAH492011
House RockARIZONA322022
Glen CanyonUTAH312024
Bullfrog BayUTAH312017
Desert ViewUTAH302024
CanyonlandsUTAH302006
NageesiNEW-MEXICO292024
CanyonlandsUTAH292024
Peach SpringARIZONA262024
AntonitoCOLORADO261996
HiteUTAH262023
MountainairNEW-MEXICO252024
Moquith MtnUTAH252024
The GapARIZONA231976
La Plata 2NEW-MEXICO222016
HatchUTAH202024
VernalUTAH191999
Gilson ButteUTAH182004
HanksvilleUTAH172024
AnethUTAH172024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.