BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-throated Sparrow In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauArid-land birds

Black-throated Sparrow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has declined: down 43% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-43%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
104Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-throated Sparrow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau. See the full index history below.

Black-throated Sparrow In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Sparrow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 14% by 2030 — from 3.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.5 (95% range 1.3–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–7.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Sparrow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 14% by 2030 — from 3.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.5 (95% range 1.3–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.41.27.6
20274.41.37.6
20284.51.37.7
20294.51.37.7
20304.51.37.7

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Black-throated Sparrow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ShivwitzUTAH642025
ToroweapARIZONA592025
PageARIZONA572019
Arches NpUTAH492011
HatchUTAH352025
House RockARIZONA322022
Bullfrog BayUTAH312017
Alton 2UTAH312025
NotomUTAH302025
CanyonlandsUTAH302006
BlandingUTAH292025
Peach SpringARIZONA262025
AntonitoCOLORADO261996
MountainairNEW-MEXICO252024
Desert ViewUTAH242025
HiteUTAH242025
CanyonlandsUTAH242025
The GapARIZONA231976
La Plata 2NEW-MEXICO222016
Moquith MtnUTAH212025
CounselorNEW-MEXICO202025
VernalUTAH191999
Gilson ButteUTAH182004
Navajo TrailARIZONA172025
NageesiNEW-MEXICO172025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.