BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-throated Green Warbler In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasForest birds

Black-throated Green Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has surged: up 544% on the route-weighted index since 2006.

+544%Since 2006
8Routes In Region
20Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Black-throated Green Warbler has surged in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 543% on the route-weighted index since 2006.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Green Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 45% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.11–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+45%Change by 2029
0.20Projected 2029 index
0.11–0.2995% range
±30.3%Backtest error
20042029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.170.080.25
20260.170.090.26
20270.180.100.27
20280.190.100.28
20290.200.110.29

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Black-throated Green Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Dry ForkARKANSAS52023
Dry Fork 2ARKANSAS32024
Big CedarOKLAHOMA32024
WaldronARKANSAS22023
Ouachita NfOKLAHOMA22022
SimsARKANSAS12019
Hatfield 2ARKANSAS12024
Magazine MtnARKANSAS12015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.