BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-throated Green Warbler In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasForest birds

Black-throated Green Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has surged: up 544% on the route-weighted index since 2006.

+544%Since 2006TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
20YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-throated Green Warbler has surged in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 543% on the route-weighted index since 2006.

Black-throated Green Warbler In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Green Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 45% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.11–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+45%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.11–0.2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Green Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 45% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.11–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.20042029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.170.080.25
20260.170.090.26
20270.180.100.27
20280.190.100.28
20290.200.110.29

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Black-throated Green Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dry ForkARKANSAS52023
Dry Fork 2ARKANSAS32024
Big CedarOKLAHOMA32024
WaldronARKANSAS22023
Ouachita NfOKLAHOMA22022
SimsARKANSAS12019
Hatfield 2ARKANSAS12024
Magazine MtnARKANSAS12015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.