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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-throated Green Warbler In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasForest birds

Black-throated Green Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has surged: up 501% on the route-weighted index since 2006.

+501%Since 2006TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
21YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-throated Green Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas. See the full index history below.

Black-throated Green Warbler In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Green Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 0.16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.12–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.20Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.12–0.2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Green Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 0.16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.12–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.20042030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.170.090.26
20270.180.100.27
20280.190.100.27
20290.200.110.28
20300.200.120.29

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Black-throated Green Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dry ForkARKANSAS52023
WaldronARKANSAS32025
Big CedarOKLAHOMA32024
Hatfield 2ARKANSAS22025
Dry Fork 2ARKANSAS22025
SimsARKANSAS12019
Magazine MtnARKANSAS12015
Ouachita NfOKLAHOMA12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.