BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-throated Green Warbler In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Black-throated Green Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+80%Since 1968
54Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Black-throated Green Warbler has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Green Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 41% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+41%Change by 2029
0.24Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.4895% range
±64.6%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.230.000.48
20260.230.000.48
20270.230.000.48
20280.240.000.48
20290.240.000.48

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Black-throated Green Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
N WilmurtNEW-YORK91998
SheridanNEW-YORK42024
WillsboroNEW-YORK32023
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA31989
W ShokanNEW-YORK22019
MendonNEW-YORK22004
RandolphNEW-YORK22018
OneidaNEW-YORK21997
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK22022
BalmatNEW-YORK22008
GarrettsvileOHIO21975
StrongsvilleOHIO21974
AkeleyPENNSYLVANIA21971
HarrisvillePENNSYLVANIA22022
BristolVERMONT21998
HighlandNEW-YORK12012
AusterlitzNEW-YORK11999
CatskillsNEW-YORK12000
GhentNEW-YORK12008
DuanesburgNEW-YORK11975
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK12019
TrumansburgNEW-YORK12022
OrleansNEW-YORK11968
BranchportNEW-YORK12024
Canadice LNEW-YORK12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.