BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-throated Green Warbler In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Black-throated Green Warbler in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 110% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+110%Since 1968
117Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Black-throated Green Warbler has surged in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 110% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Green Warbler in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 44% by 2029 — from 5.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.5 (95% range 5.8–9.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+44%Change by 2029
7.5Projected 2029 index
5.8–9.295% range
±27.9%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20257.25.58.9
20267.35.69.0
20277.45.79.0
20287.45.89.1
20297.55.89.2

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Black-throated Green Warbler in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Washington IWISCONSIN402024
HovlandMINNESOTA312024
BlackduckMINNESOTA302022
Eagle RiverWISCONSIN282024
Imp LakeMICHIGAN242019
Land O LakesWISCONSIN242016
LockportMINNESOTA232024
EnsignMICHIGAN222010
Scott'S MarshMICHIGAN162010
Big Island LakeMICHIGAN162010
Land O' Lakes 2WISCONSIN162024
Hiawatha NfMICHIGAN152024
SidnawMICHIGAN152024
MareniscoMICHIGAN142019
GooseneckMICHIGAN142010
CavourWISCONSIN142024
MellenWISCONSIN132024
GilchristMICHIGAN122021
Isabella 2MICHIGAN122024
Cluster LakesMICHIGAN122010
McnaughtonWISCONSIN122024
BigforkMINNESOTA112024
ChisholmMINNESOTA112024
ShanagoldenWISCONSIN112024
OntonagonMICHIGAN102019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.