BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-throated Gray Warbler In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinForest birds

Black-throated Gray Warbler in Great Basin has held roughly steady: down 7% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-7%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
78Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-throated Gray Warbler in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Black-throated Gray Warbler In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Gray Warbler in Great Basin is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 0.91 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.70 (95% range 0.23–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.70Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.23–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Gray Warbler in Great Basin is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 0.91 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.70 (95% range 0.23–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.690.221.2
20260.690.221.2
20270.690.231.2
20280.690.231.2
20290.700.231.2

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Black-throated Gray Warbler in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mt HoodOREGON232024
IndexWASHINGTON201971
KendallWASHINGTON202024
NewhalemWASHINGTON172024
Badger CreekOREGON142024
E. Mt. AdamsWASHINGTON132024
GlacierWASHINGTON102024
BartleCALIFORNIA82021
NewcastleUTAH72022
White ChuckWASHINGTON62024
Suiattle RivWASHINGTON62018
ConcreteWASHINGTON62024
Humboldt NfNEVADA52015
Big PineCALIFORNIA42024
RanchograndeNEVADA42023
Oak CityUTAH42014
Grouse CreekUTAH41982
SnowdenWASHINGTON42024
MacdoelCALIFORNIA32012
Deep SpringsCALIFORNIA32022
IllipahNEVADA32021
WillisNEVADA32024
BuchananOREGON31972
VernonUTAH32023
Cascade RivWASHINGTON32006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.