BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-throated Gray Warbler In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertForest birds

Black-throated Gray Warbler in Chihuahuan Desert has held roughly steady: down 4% on the route-weighted index since 1989.

-4%Since 1989TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
29YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-throated Gray Warbler in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Black-throated Gray Warbler In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Gray Warbler in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Gray Warbler in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.080.000.15
20270.080.000.15
20280.080.000.15
20290.080.000.15
20300.080.000.15

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Black-throated Gray Warbler in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Red RockNEW-MEXICO32025
PinonNEW-MEXICO32024
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.