BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-throated Gray Warbler In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalForest birds

Black-throated Gray Warbler in Sierra Madre Occidental has edged up: up 15% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+15%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-throated Gray Warbler in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Gray Warbler in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 69% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.34–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+69%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.34–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Gray Warbler in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 69% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.34–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
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Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Black-throated Gray Warbler in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ReserveNEW-MEXICO212023
PortalARIZONA182024
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA132021
Mt. GrahamARIZONA72023
SprucedaleARIZONA72023
Aztec PeakARIZONA61978
SunizonaARIZONA51997
Forest LakesARIZONA52024
WilliamsARIZONA32019
RuckerARIZONA32009
Mormon LakeARIZONA21974
PinetopARIZONA22021
Sunizona 2ARIZONA22022
FlagstaffARIZONA12009
PrescottARIZONA12022
BlueARIZONA11991
PatagoniaARIZONA12019
MaineARIZONA12005
AlpineARIZONA12021
Clay SpringARIZONA12012
Carr MtnARIZONA12022
DragoonARIZONA12009
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO12022
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.